US Election: 43 Million Voted Early, Democrats Hold Polling Lead

American voters have cast more than 43 million early ballots in the five days preceding the midterms, a figure that stands nearly 10 million higher than the count at the same time in 2022. This surge in early participation is occurring while national polling averages show Democrats holding an 8.2 percentage point lead over Republicans for the House of Representatives.

According to RealClearPolling, Democrats lead the generic ballot average by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent. A separate survey from The Economist and YouGov, released on Thursday, indicates that 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House after the election. In contrast, only 31 percent expect Republicans to retain control. Expectations for the Senate are tighter, with 39 percent of voters anticipating a Democratic majority and 36 percent expecting a Republican one.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, noted that the polling data suggests different outcomes for the two chambers. "A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats," Kondik said. He added that while the Senate could also flip, the outcome there remains much more uncertain.

The increase in early voting is particularly pronounced in states with competitive Senate races. In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, representing a 50 percent increase over the 4.2 million recorded at the same point in 2022. Georgia saw more than 2.5 million ballots cast by Friday morning, surpassing the 2.3 million recorded during the 2022 early voting period. The Associated Press analysis also noted that early voting increased by more than 30 percent in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Kansas compared to the same period in 2022.

President Donald Trump reversed his decision to cancel two weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa. The White House initially stated on Thursday that Trump would participate in nearly 20 telephone campaign events instead of in-person rallies. Less than a day later, the president restored the in-person appearances to his schedule. Campaign sources described the move as an effort to mobilize Republican voters, noting that personal appearances have a stimulating effect on supporters in states where Republicans face strong opposition in Senate races.

On Friday, Trump campaigned in Florida, where Republicans are defending Senate and gubernatorial seats. "You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let’s pretend they’re one point down," Trump told the crowd. In Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton canceled an event in El Paso to focus on Harris County, the state's most populous county, as early voting neared its end. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned in Mississippi, urging voters to participate by citing the number of people he knows who lost out due to low turnout.

This weekend, Trump is scheduled to hold back-to-back rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. In Iowa, he will support Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, followed by a campaign stop in Kansas with Senator Roger Marshall. Recent polls indicate that the Senate race in Kansas is competitive, with an Emerson College poll showing Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton leading 49 percent to Marshall's 45 percent.

Democratic candidates are also making their final appeals to voters. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is scheduled to join Ohio gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton at a campaign event. In Alaska, Democratic Senate nominee Mary Peltola is expected to attend a rally in Bethel. The Alaska race is considered one of seven key toss-ups that will likely determine whether Republicans maintain their majority in the Senate. That race has been complicated by a dispute involving two candidates named Dan Sullivan, a matter that has prompted legal action by the Department of Justice.

Republican House candidate Mike Rogers is also expected to campaign alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson over the weekend. The final push for votes continues as the nation prepares for Election Day on Tuesday.