Mississippi Senate Race Count Lacks Clarity on Outstanding Ballots
Officials in Mississippi have not released a total count of remaining votes as the gap between Senate candidates narrows to fewer than 2,000 votes.
By Zoe Harrison ·
Republican Secretary of State Michael Watson stated on Friday that individual counties are the most reliable source for current voting data in Mississippi. This clarification came as the state struggled to provide a definitive count of outstanding ballots in a U.S. Senate race that remains undecided.
As of midday on Friday, the margin between incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic challenger Scott Colom was fewer than 2,000 votes. The Colom campaign reported late Tuesday that it was tracking more than 15,000 provisional ballots, which require verification before inclusion in the final tally. In contrast, the chair of the state Republican Party estimated on Thursday that there were 20,000 outstanding ballots, a figure that included potential absentee votes legally receivable until November 10 if postmarked by Election Day.
Watson acknowledged that his office did not know the exact number of provisional ballots remaining. He noted that over 9,000 of these ballots had been processed by Friday midday. Because Mississippi comprises 82 counties, local jurisdictions are not required to transmit their results to the state until next week. This decentralized structure makes it difficult for state officials to provide a real-time aggregate count.
The high volume of provisional ballots, known locally as affidavit ballots, is a central issue in the current count. These ballots are cast by voters whose eligibility requires further review. If the Colom campaign’s estimate of 15,000 affidavit ballots is accurate, it represents approximately 1.5% of the total votes cast in the Senate race. Federal data from the 2022 midterm cycle shows that only four states had a higher provisional ballot rate. Preliminary data suggests Mississippi’s rate this year is nearly double that of North Carolina.
Michael Morse, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania who studies voting, expressed surprise at the lack of available information for such a high-profile contest. He noted that he could not determine basic details about the election process. Morse identified a specific registration practice as a likely contributor. Mississippi requires voters with inactive status to cast provisional ballots, whereas most other states allow these voters to cast regular ballots for a period of time before removal from the rolls.
The state’s use of credit data to manage voter lists has drawn attention from local media and experts. Morse suggested that combining this experimental data with the requirement for provisional voting may have introduced unreliability into the process. Watson defended the registration process in a Tuesday post on X, arguing that the additional time required for affidavit voting adds integrity to the election by maintaining cleaner voter rolls.
Kathy Boockvar, the former Democratic secretary of state of Pennsylvania, observed that the difficulty in obtaining information reflects Mississippi’s recent status as a traditional battleground. She argued that transparency and good data are essential for combating public suspicion. Boockvar noted that while many provisional voters are likely to be deemed eligible, the process often creates a feeling of distrust among those who must interact with it.
