Midterm polls show GOP trouble
Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37%, a level historically associated with major losses for the president's party.
By Tessa Cooper ·
Voters in Suffolk County and across the nation face a decisive Tuesday, with polls indicating a sharp decline in support for President Donald Trump. His average approval rating has dropped to 37%, down from 52% early in 2025. This figure falls below the 40% threshold that has historically signaled severe midterm losses for the president's party.
The political pendulum appears to be swinging against the incumbent White House party. While Republicans held a slim majority in the House, most observers predict they will lose it this week. The Senate race remains tight, with the possibility that Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote could determine the outcome. Trump spent the final weekend of the campaign in Iowa and Kansas, states he previously won by wide margins, attempting to limit losses in the Senate.
Trump's personal brand is central to this election cycle. He has framed the midterms as a referendum on his leadership, describing himself as the architect of a new era. This approach has energized his base but has also drawn criticism from opponents who use the slogan "No Kings" to describe his style of governance. Democrats have focused on unfulfilled promises regarding inflation and foreign policy, citing elevated gas prices and a lack of progress in Ukraine.
If Democrats secure a House majority, it will likely be modest. A narrow Senate win would empower independent members on both sides of the aisle. Internal party dynamics present additional challenges for Democrats, particularly regarding the influence of left-wing candidates associated with the Democratic Socialists of America. These candidates have featured prominently in Republican advertising, even in races where they did not advance to the general election.
Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer formerly associated with Democratic think tanks, published a list of questions for Democrats in October. He asked whether the party would prioritize working-class economic interests over social policy issues if they regain power. This internal debate contrasts with the unified opposition to Trump that has characterized the 2026 Democratic campaign.
Confidence in the electoral system itself may be tested in the days following the vote. Nonpartisan experts note that modern voting technology and administrative upgrades have improved security since the Help America Vote Act passed in 2002. However, Trump has frequently questioned the integrity of polls and news reports. His past statements suggesting that losses are the result of fraud have set the stage for potential disputes over the final results.
The election results will determine the balance of power in Congress for the next two years. The outcome will also set the tone for the 2028 presidential race. As polls close, the focus shifts from campaigning to the administration of the vote and the subsequent verification of results in key states.
