Midterm Costs: US Election Spending Heads Toward $12 Billion

Campaign spending for the 2026 US midterm elections is tracking near a record high of $12 billion.

The figure comes from OpenSecrets, a research group that monitors money in American politics. Critics point to the scale of the expenditure while voters worry about affordability and rising living costs.

Elon Musk has donated $445 million to Republican efforts, according to campaign finance records. Many observers argue that current rules allow wealthy donors and corporations to exert outsized influence over who runs for office and what policies get proposed.

Funds enter the cycle through two main channels. Candidates raise money directly for their own operations. Democrats are projected to spend over $2.2 billion on direct campaign activities, while Republicans are expected to spend $1.4 billion.

A second channel is outside spending, where unions and corporations fund ads without coordinating directly with candidates. This practice expanded after the Supreme Court ruled in 2010 that such communication is protected political speech. Federal Election Commission data shows outside spending has nearly tripled in ten years, rising from $4.12 billion in 2016 to an estimated $11.9 billion this cycle.

Independent expenditure-only committees, or super PACs, handle much of this money. The Senate Leadership Fund has spent $489 million for Republicans, and MAGA Inc has spent $353 million. On the Democratic side, the Senate Majority PAC has spent $248 million and the House Majority PAC has spent $192 million. Other groups include the America PAC, founded by Musk, and the Democracy PAC, funded by George Soros.

Transparency remains a concern. Super PACs must report contributions to the Federal Election Commission monthly, but money often moves through shell PACs before being spent. OpenSecrets estimates that dark money, where the source is unidentifiable, will exceed $1.5 billion this election, up from $1.35 billion in 2024.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani accused the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, of spending millions in dark money on pro-Israel candidates. Public records show AIPAC channeled funds through shell PACs, including the United Democracy Project. The group spent nearly $15 million supporting George Latimer in New York, $5.24 million for Wesley Bell in Missouri, and $20.7 million against Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.

Heaviest spending is occurring in competitive states like Georgia, Texas, and Michigan. In Michigan, an estimated $333 million has been spent on the Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Rogers has raised about $23 million directly, while El-Sayed has raised roughly $54 million. Outside groups have spent $169 million supporting Rogers and $94 million supporting El-Sayed.

The spending surge coincides with a cost-of-living crisis. Fuel prices have risen since the US-Israel war on Iran began in February. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz pushed diesel costs up 65 percent and fertilizer prices up as much as 40 percent. Americans have spent at least $150 billion on petrol and diesel since the war began, which is 30 percent more than they would have otherwise. The $12 billion in campaign spending equals about 8 percent of those fuel costs, or roughly $92 per household.