Israeli Leaders Face Impossible Choices in Coalition Talks

Voters in Israel must now wait for a government that may require leaders to break their most explicit campaign promises. The recent election left two main contenders, Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, in a stalemate that complicates the path to power. Neither side has secured the 61 seats required for a governing majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu’s bloc holds 53 seats, while Eisenkot’s bloc holds 48.

The primary obstacle for Eisenkot is the question of partnering with Arab parties. His coalition includes four Zionist parties: Yashar, B’Yachad, Israel Beytenu, and the Democrats. If Eisenkot added the eight seats of Ra’am and the eleven seats of the Joint List, he would reach 67 seats. However, three of the four parties in his bloc pledged not to form a government with Arab parties. Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff, stated in a late September interview with Channel 12 News that the Arab parties did not meet his conditions for joining his government.

Those conditions included a commitment to Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, mandatory military or national service, and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization. Naftali Bennett, who previously relied on Ra’am support in 2021, also ruled out sitting in a government with Arab parties. Avigdor Liberman, whose party won seven seats, said he would form a coalition of Zionist parties only. Yair Golan, the only leader in the bloc who previously supported such a partnership, has called on the others to follow suit.

A minority government supported by Arab parties from outside the coalition remains an option. This approach would still face political and public opposition. The Joint List issued a declaration saying it was willing to engage in political cooperation to bring down Netanyahu’s government, but it did not clarify the conditions under which it would support Eisenkot. Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra’am, said on election eve that he would know how to bring a government to the Knesset.

If Eisenkot cannot secure Arab support, he may turn to the 13 seats held by the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism. All four parties in Eisenkot’s bloc made ending the ultra-Orthodox exemption from military service a central issue. Cooperation with Shas and UTJ would mean breaking that promise, as both ultra-Orthodox parties pledged they would not allow forced conscription for their Haredi constituents.

Another option for the opposition is a national unity government with Netanyahu. This path conflicts with the bloc’s central goal of unseating Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. Eisenkot said in a late October radio interview that he unequivocally commits to not sitting under Netanyahu, even in a rotation. Bennett added that he is not going to sit under Netanyahu because he is the person destroying the State of Israel.

Liberman wrote on X two weeks ago that even if the world turns upside down, his party will not sit with Netanyahu under any circumstances. Golan stated that his party will not sit with Netanyahu and his partners. These statements make a unity government a difficult prospect for the opposition bloc.

Netanyahu faces his own hurdles. His coalition’s 53 seats are eight short of a majority. He spent the campaign describing cooperation with Arab parties as a disgrace. Despite this rhetoric, he may try to form a government with Ra’am, whose leader spoke with politicians from both blocs on election night. Netanyahu held similar talks with Abbas during the 2022 election.

Even if Netanyahu pursued such an alliance, his ultra-nationalist partners Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich said during the campaign that cooperation with Arab parties was out of the question. With both sides blocked by their own allies and promises, the formation of the next government may require a fundamental breach of campaign pledges. If neither side succeeds, Israel will hold another election.