Travis Crum: 2026 Midterm Results Mask Long-Term Voting Rights Risks

Travis Crum, the Treiman Professor of Law at Washington University in St. Louis, stated that the 2026 midterm election results did not erase the long-term damage caused by the Supreme Court's recent ruling on voting rights.

Crum wrote in a post on the Election Law Blog that the redistricting efforts following the decision failed to achieve their intended goals in most southern states.

In April 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court issued its decision in Louisiana v. Callais. The ruling narrowed the scope of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Section 2 protects racial minorities from electoral maps that dilute their voting power. The court's action weakened federal protections against discriminatory districting practices.

Following the decision, six southern states redrew their congressional maps. These changes eliminated majority-minority districts. Crum noted that the strategy resulted in fewer Republican gains than expected. He described the effort as a failure in four of the six states. Louisiana was the exception, where one district is headed to a runoff election.

Crum attributed the muted political impact of the ruling to a surge in Black voter turnout. He observed that the decision sparked a backlash that blunted its immediate effects. Black turnout across the South was high, a trend visible in the potential Democratic victory in the Mississippi Senate race.

Despite the short-term results, Crum warned that the doctrinal changes remain in place. He noted that it is unknown if current turnout levels will persist. The elections of 2028 and 2030 will provide more data on the ruling's consequences. Future redistricting efforts after 2030 will operate under a weakened Section 2.

Crum concluded that while the mid-decade redistricting backfired in 2026, the potential for long-term consequences for minority representation remains high.