Experts say California migrants are not the main cause of Texas election losses
While Republican leaders blame the recent Democratic surge on out-of-state voters, data shows the California transplant population is politically balanced and smaller than other migration groups.
By Tessa Cooper ·
Texas Republicans attributed their historic election defeats this week to a range of internal factors, including party extremists, scandals, and the influence of President Donald Trump. They also cited soaring prices, Attorney General Ken Paxton, immigration policy, the Iran war, data centers, and private school vouchers. A new argument has now surfaced among some party members: the influx of Californians.
Critics on social media argue that California transplants arrive in Texas while retaining their previous voting habits. One user on X noted, “Californians are leaving in droves and settling in Texas…but still voting the same way.” Another suggested that these residents brought the specific policies they fled from in the Golden State. Governor Greg Abbott, who lost his reelection bid to Democrat Gina Hinojosa, has previously popularized the phrase “Don’t California my Texas.”
The movement of residents from California to Texas is well documented. According to U.S. Census results, approximately 486,000 Californians moved to Texas since 2020, often seeking better job opportunities and housing affordability. During the same period, the state gained nearly 2.5 million people through immigration, natural population growth, and migration from other states.
Political geographers and academic experts suggest that California migrants are not the primary driver of the state’s recent political shift. Chris McGinn, executive director of the Texas Association of County Election Officials, stated that while all migration alters state demographics, blaming California specifically is a fallacy. He noted that Florida’s red status is due to similar demographic shifts over time.
A recent study by government professors James Gimpel of the University of Maryland and Daron Shaw of the University of Texas analyzed 519,000 California transplants who moved to Texas between 2004 and 2020 and registered to vote. The data revealed a politically mixed group: 37% identified as Republican, 36% as Democrat, and 27% as independent or unaffiliated.
Gimpel explained that Texas is so large that a balanced flow of migrants takes decades to shift the state’s political balance. He added that people often move to regions that match their existing political views, such as conservative Californians moving to the Panhandle or progressive residents clustering around Austin. McGinn agreed, noting that migration tends to have a more immediate impact on local neighborhoods than on statewide results.
Gimpel pointed to Fort Bend County near Houston, where Democrats swept the county judge and commissioner races, as an example of local change. However, he argued that the broader Democratic victory across the state is more likely driven by younger Texans changing their views and the growing influence of Hispanic communities. McGinn concurred, citing the tilt of Hispanic voters toward Democrats as a key factor in the election outcome.
