New Zealand Election: Special Votes Leave Government Uncertain
Preliminary results show a 67-seat majority for the right, but uncounted ballots could shift the balance by up to three seats.
By Tessa Cooper ·
New Zealand faces a multi-week wait to determine its next government after Saturday's election produced a razor-thin result that leaves both major blocs without a clear mandate. The final outcome hinges on special votes, which have not yet been counted.
Preliminary figures show the centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, securing 42 seats. Its coalition partners, Act and New Zealand First, won 13 and 12 seats respectively. Together, this right-wing bloc holds 67 seats. The opposition left bloc, comprising Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori, holds 56 seats.
The left is currently three seats short of a majority. However, the inclusion of seven seats for the centrist party Opportunity brings their potential total to 63. This leaves the right with a narrow advantage, but one that is vulnerable to the final tally.
Special votes, which include ballots from overseas voters and those cast outside their electorate, are the deciding factor. In the 2023 election, 600,000 such votes were issued, representing 21% of the total. Historical data indicates these votes often favor left-leaning parties. In 2023, special votes helped Te Pāti Māori and the Greens gain three seats.
Luxon addressed supporters at the Viaduct events centre in Auckland just before midnight. He described the situation as too close to call and stated that negotiations could not begin until the special votes were counted. He noted that National remained the largest party and had a pathway to forming a government. National edged out Labour by 0.02% in the party vote.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins spoke to a crowd at the Cosmopolitan Club in Upper Hutt. He acknowledged that the shape of the next government would take time to determine. Hipkins said Labour would get straight to work if the final vote landed in their favour.
The election also saw the historic entry of the centrist party Opportunity into parliament. The party, led by Qiulae Wong, crossed the 5% threshold at 5.9%. This is the first time a new party has met this requirement under the mixed-member proportional system adopted in 1996. Wong told her supporters in Auckland that the results looked promising.
The electoral system also produced overhang seats, where parties win more electorate seats than their party vote share would normally allow. National gained five such seats. Te Pāti Māori gained five. This could result in a 130-seat parliament, a record for the system. A majority of 65 seats would then be required to form a coalition.
Four senior National ministers, including Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, Chris Bishop, and Gerry Brownlee, will not return to parliament. They lost their electorate seats, and the party did not win enough party votes to bring in additional list-only MPs. This trade-off impacts the party's internal structure while it seeks to govern.
The country will wait until 27 November for the official release of results. In the interim, Luxon confirmed that caretaker government conventions apply. He assured New Zealanders that the daily business of government will continue during this period of uncertainty.
