Netanyahu bloc trails opposition in final Israel poll

A Channel 12 poll released Friday projected that Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party would win 22 Knesset seats. This number would make it the largest party in the chamber, placing it ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, which was projected to win 19 seats.

The polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. Tuesday. Exit polls are expected to be released at 10:00 p.m., providing preliminary projections. Official results will be finalized in the days following the vote count. Voting at diplomatic missions abroad ended on October 16. Military bases began voting last week.

This is the first national election since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The political environment has shifted since the 2022 vote. Key issues for voters include the Israel Defense Forces manpower crisis after three years of war, the debate over conscription for haredi men, and calls for a state commission of inquiry into government failures during the attack.

Netanyahu has led Israel for 19 non-consecutive years. The opposition bloc seeks to hold him accountable for the events of October 7. Most parties in both blocs agree against the establishment of a Palestinian state, a traditional issue that has moved to the background.

Neither bloc is projected to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority without the support of Arab parties. The final Channel 12 poll showed Netanyahu’s bloc with 50 seats and the opposition bloc with 56. Arab parties were projected to win a combined 16 seats. Most opposition leaders have pledged not to form a government with Arab parties, citing the events of October 7.

Voter turnout will determine the number of votes required to clear the 3.25% electoral threshold. Prof. Alex Weinreb of the Taub Center estimates that at a 70% turnout, similar to 2022, a party needs 165,635 votes to enter the Knesset. Smaller parties, including Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economics, face a tougher challenge if turnout increases.

Police prepared for public order disruptions, particularly after the release of exit polls. Approximately 20,000 police officers, Border Police officers, and volunteers will be deployed nationwide. The forces will station themselves at thousands of polling stations to safeguard the integrity of the elections.