ICJ to rule if Myanmar committed genocide against Rohingya

The International Court of Justice will deliver a final and binding verdict on November 19 regarding whether Myanmar committed genocide against the Rohingya people. Judge Yuji Iwasawa, the court president, will read the judgment at 10 a.m. local time at the Peace Palace in The Hague. No appeal is permitted once the decision is issued.

The case was initiated in November 2019 by the Gambia, supported by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. It marks the first instance in which a state not directly targeted by the alleged crimes brought a genocide claim before the court. The proceedings focus on the military campaign in Rakhine State that began on August 25, 2017.

That campaign displaced more than 700,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh. Approximately 1.2 million Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim minority, now reside in camps near Cox's Bazar, the world's largest refugee settlement. The Gambia cites roughly 10,000 killings, a figure it describes as a conservative estimate, along with decades of restrictions on marriage, birth, movement, and healthcare for the group.

Myanmar’s counsel argued that the military conducted counterterrorism operations in response to Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army attacks on police posts that killed 12 security personnel in August 2017. During hearings held from January 12 to 29, 2026, which included closed-door testimony from Rohingya witnesses, Myanmar maintained that its forces aimed to drive the Rohingya out of the country rather than destroy them. The Gambia countered that genocidal intent is the only reasonable inference from the conduct.

Sexual violence forms a central part of the Gambia’s legal argument. Antonia Mulvey, an international human rights lawyer who investigated the issue for the UN in 2017, stated that soldiers systematically surrounded villages, opened fire, and selected women and girls for rape. She described mass gang rapes involving up to 40 women and girls at a time. One survivor told Mulvey: "I was lucky, I was only raped by three men."

This will be the third time the ICJ has ruled on the merits of a genocide case and the first in over a decade. In 2007, the court found genocide occurred at Srebrenica but held Serbia responsible only for failing to prevent and punish it. In 2015, it found genocide was not proven in the Croatia versus Serbia case. The current ruling will clarify how the court applies the "only reasonable inference" test to prove intent without direct evidence.

Eleven states, including Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, intervened in the case. Mike Becker, an assistant professor of international human rights law at Trinity College Dublin, noted that this is the first merits ruling with such large-scale third-state intervention. He said the outcome may determine whether that trend continues.

US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz accused Navi Pillay, the ad hoc judge appointed by the Gambia, of seeking to lower the threshold for proving genocide in October. Mulvey rejected the claim as misleading, stating the Gambia argues the threshold has already been met. The judgment is expected to influence other pending cases, including South Africa’s case against Israel regarding the war in Gaza, where the confirmed death toll has reached almost 75,000 people.

Rohingya survivors seek recognition, compensation, prosecutions, and citizenship, which they are denied under Myanmar’s 1982 citizenship law. Mulvey said: "At the very minimum, they want recognition." Becker added that any remedy ordered could be groundbreaking if it requires domestic reforms guaranteeing citizenship rights and non-discrimination.

Myanmar is bound to comply with the judgment. If it fails to do so, the Gambia can refer the matter to the UN Security Council, which has never enforced an ICJ ruling. Myanmar has been in civil war since February 2021, when Min Aung Hlaing overthrew the civilian government. He stepped down as army chief in April 2026 and was later elected president by a military-dominated parliament. The International Criminal Court prosecutor applied for an arrest warrant for Hlaing in November 2024, and an Argentine court ordered arrest warrants for 25 officials, including Hlaing and Aung San Suu Kyi, in February 2025.