Haredi Leader and Bennett May Decide Israel's Next Government

Political analysts in Israel are preparing for a complex coalition process following the upcoming election, with two specific figures identified as potential deciding factors. Agudat Yisrael, a Haredi party holding three seats in the Knesset, may provide support to a government led by opposition figures. This possibility relies on financial agreements rather than full ideological alignment.

Yitzhak Goldknopf heads Agudat Yisrael, a faction that has shown recent dissatisfaction with the current ruling coalition. In August, the Maariv newspaper reported that the party explored cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. These discussions occurred during internal tensions within United Torah Judaism regarding the Haredi draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando also expressed reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Netanyahu bloc.

Goldknopf faces a strategic challenge because his constituency largely identifies with the right wing. Assessments indicate that supporting an opposition-led government could drive some voters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. Even if Agudat Yisrael backs the opposition, the government might still require votes from Arab parties to reach a majority. The opposition is currently considering a government structure that depends on Arab party support as one of several options.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett represents another variable in the political calculations. If neither the ruling bloc nor the opposition secures the 61 seats needed for a majority, Bennett could join a Netanyahu-led government. This scenario is considered remote but possible because Bennett has a background in right-wing politics. His current party composition would complicate such a move, requiring him to shift his base of support.

Avigdor Liberman is also mentioned as a potential figure who could bridge the divide, having previously served as defense minister under Netanyahu. However, current political assessments suggest Liberman is unlikely to take this step due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. The ability of any leader to move their political base will be a central issue in future negotiations.

Voting begins within a day, and political figures are reviewing all possible outcomes. These include a return to the polls if no stable government can be formed. For now, the reported scenarios remain assessments rather than formal agreements between parties.