Five 2026 NFL Deadline Trades Facing High Risk of Becoming Busts

The landscape of in-season NFL trading has grown increasingly aggressive, raising the stakes for teams that might overpay for talent. This risk was starkly illustrated in 2025 when the Indianapolis Colts sent two first-round picks to the New York Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner. That move is now viewed as a historic misstep, as the Colts are deep in a rebuild while Gardner has struggled with the worst football of his career since arriving in Indianapolis. As teams executed 18 deals ahead of the 2026 trade deadline, they aimed to avoid such disasters, though it remains possible that some of this year's transactions could follow a similar trajectory.

Among the recent moves, the swap sending Jeffery Simmons to the Chicago Bears most closely mirrors the Gardner trade, with the Tennessee Titans receiving two first-round picks in return. However, early indications suggest this deal is working well for Chicago. In a small sample size, the defensive tackle has recorded a sack and a pass breakup in both of his first two games, along with a tackle for loss in his debut. His presence has visibly elevated the unit around him, making this trade look like a strong move for the Super Bowl contenders despite long-term injury risks.

The Jacksonville Jaguars made an all-in move by trading a 2027 first-round pick and a 2029 second-rounder for defensive end Jordan Davis. This acquisition addresses an immediate need created by DaVon Hamilton's season-ending injury. The trade carries significant risk because it demands Davis be an immediate difference-maker. The Jaguars are fighting for the AFC's top seed, and the deal will ultimately be judged by his performance in the postseason. While Davis should stop the run effectively, his modest sack totals mean the Jaguars are hoping his presence will force offenses to adjust their blocking schemes.

Houston Texans acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. from the Arizona Cardinals for a second-round pick, adding a player who was already considered a bust of his No. 4 overall draft slot. Harrison is reuniting with his college quarterback, C.J. Stroud, which offers long-term promise as Stroud develops into a franchise-caliber player. However, warning signs exist regarding Harrison's effort and production. Since joining Houston, he has not caught more than three passes in a single game and has run only 29 routes across three appearances, all coming off the bench in a crowded receiving corps that includes Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, and Tank Dell.

The Minnesota Vikings traded a third-round pick for quarterback Kirk Cousins, a move that could spark a Super Bowl run if it succeeds. Cousins has had a rejuvenated season with the Las Vegas Raiders, playing his best football since his first stint in Minnesota and pacing for a career-high 40-touchdown season. The question is whether he can replicate that success in Kevin O'Connell's system. While his previous tenure with O'Connell was successful, that was before he tore his Achilles tendon at age 35. The Vikings are betting that his fit with the current offensive scheme will yield even better results than his time in Las Vegas.

The Dallas Cowboys' pursuit of cornerback Joey Porter Jr. has been hampered by persistent health issues. Despite trading for him in early October, the Cowboys have received only one game of full-strength play from him, during which he recorded no statistics. He has since missed games due to illness and an ankle injury, and it remains uncertain if he will return in Week 10. When on the field, Porter is an elite defender who has allowed only one touchdown in his career. However, his availability and the lack of significant improvement in the Cowboys' overall defensive metrics raise questions about the value of the 2028 second-round and 2027 sixth-round picks sent to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Finally, the Seattle Seahawks acquired offensive guard Quenton Nelson from the Indianapolis Colts for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth-rounder. This deal is clouded by uncertainty due to a minor knee procedure Nelson underwent, leaving his status week-to-week. He will miss Week 10 but has not been placed on injured reserve, suggesting a potential return in early December. While the price paid is modest for a top-tier interior lineman, the trade's value depends on Nelson's health and his ability to revitalize Seattle's stagnant running game. Early results have been underwhelming, with the Seahawks managing only 81 rushing yards in his debut. If Nelson plays below full strength and leaves in free agency, Seattle could find itself out a draft pick and an All-Pro player.