SportsLine Model Predicts 24.5-Point Wofford Cover in 2026 Season Opener
The projection model backs three underdogs and one favorite for Tuesday's college basketball slate, citing roster changes for high-profile SEC teams.
By Zoe Harrison ·
The SportsLine Projection Model recommends Wofford to cover a 24.5-point spread against Tennessee on Tuesday, November 3. The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, projects Wofford to cover in 64% of those scenarios. This pick is part of a three-game slate that also includes Sam Houston and Missouri.
Tennessee enters the season as the No. 8 ranked team but lost its top five leading scorers from the previous year. The Vols have ranked in the top 10 for the last two seasons and failed to win their opening game against a lower-conference team by more than 16 points in either instance. Wofford finished 19-13 last season and is projected to place third in the SoCon preseason polls. The two teams met in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, where Wofford covered the number in a 77-64 loss.
Sam Houston is picked to cover a 26.5-point spread against Alabama. The model projects Sam Houston to cover in 54% of simulations. Alabama is ranked No. 20, its lowest preseason ranking since the 2023-24 season. The Crimson Tide lost two of their top three scorers from the previous year, when they were the No. 1 scoring team in the nation. Alabama went 6-9 against the spread at home last season. Sam Houston finished 22-12 and placed second in Conference USA under head coach Chris Mudge.
SportsLine expert Thomas Casale backs Missouri to cover a 25.5-point spread against Cleveland State. Casale stated that he would set the Tigers at minus 27.5. He noted that Cleveland State has a new roster composed mostly of freshmen and transfers from smaller schools. Casale said he believes Missouri usually defeats these types of teams at home early in the year and expects the Tigers to dominate.
The SportsLine Projection Model has an 11-1 record on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to 2025. The model is also on a 28-22 run with its top-rated side picks. These three specific selections can be combined into a parlay with odds of plus 608.
Tuesday's schedule features high-profile matchups between SEC schools and teams from lower conferences. The model identifies the smaller schools as likely to outperform sportsbook expectations in two of the three featured games. The picks are based on roster continuity and historical performance against the spread for the respective teams.
