Russia and China May Act Aggressively if Trump Loses Power, Brookings Expert Warns
Depleted missile stocks and a reduced naval presence in Asia could embolden Beijing and Moscow over the next two years, according to Robert Kagan.
By Ricardo Alvarez ·
Two-thirds of the United States' missile-defense interceptors were consumed during the conflict with Iran beginning in June 2025, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. This depletion leaves American inventories constrained for several years, a vulnerability that could influence the behavior of rival powers in the coming timeframe.
Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told CNBC that Russia and China might adopt a more aggressive posture over the next two years if they determine that President Donald Trump is politically weakened. Kagan noted that Democrats have secured control of both chambers of Congress, a development that may signal to foreign leaders that Trump is on his way out.
The war with Iran has exposed limitations in Washington's military capacity, Kagan argued. He stated that the nation has proved itself rather incapable militarily in terms of capacity, a factor that is critical in the Asian theater. The deployment of three U.S. aircraft carriers to the Middle East has further reduced the naval presence available in Asia, potentially allowing China more room to act assertively in the region.
Kagan observed that Trump's current focus appears to be on cutting economic deals with China rather than confronting the nation. He warned that this approach could lead China to become even more aggressive. In December, Trump approved an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan but held back on a second package worth approximately $14 billion, describing the latter as a bargaining chip in talks with China.
China claims self-governing Taiwan as its territory, and U.S. law requires Washington to provide the island with the means to defend itself, despite the lack of a mutual defense treaty. Former CIA Director William Burns said in 2023 that Chinese President Xi Jinping instructed the military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, though he clarified that this did not confirm a decision to launch an invasion that year.
Kagan's assessment comes as the United States, China, and Russia discuss a possible trilateral summit between Trump, Xi, and President Vladimir Putin at the APEC Leaders' meeting in Shenzhen later this month. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday that Beijing is in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state, although no agenda has been announced.
Putin reportedly floated the idea of a three-way summit in October to discuss ending the war in Ukraine without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the table. Kagan suggested that if it is clear Trump is on his way out and the United States may be returning to something like normal, both Russia and China may feel that the time to move is in the next two years.
